Harvest now, decrypt later: why Washington is accelerating its post-quantum transition

Trump signed two Executive Orders yesterday marking a new phase in America’s technology strategy

The first sets an ambitious industrial target: accelerate the development of a quantum computer capable of conducting useful scientific research by 2028, mobilizing federal agencies, national laboratories, and private industry.

The second aims to prepare the United States for the arrival of quantum decryption capabilities that could render current cryptographic mechanisms obsolete. It moves up the deadline for transitioning to quantum-resistant infrastructure from 2035 to 2031, and directs federal agencies to prioritize strengthening the protection of critical infrastructure.

Behind these announcements lies a dual ambition: preserve America’s lead in a technology seen as strategic for the coming decade, and get ahead of the security consequences of a shift that could upend the very foundations of modern cybersecurity.

Of course, the goal of having a quantum computer capable of delivering concrete scientific results by 2028 is the most visible priority. The announcement comes amid intense technological competition. Private investment is now measured in the billions of dollars. Labs at IBM, Google, Microsoft, Quantinuum, and PsiQuantum are racking up advances. France is no exception either, as Sabine Mehr of Genci reminded us on our program. Financial markets are speculating on the emergence of a new computing platform that could eventually succeed traditional architectures.

Yet the real signal lies in a second, much less discussed order, in which the White House moves up by four years the timeline for transitioning to post-quantum cryptography. Federal agencies must now be protected against quantum threats by 2031, instead of 2035 as previously planned.

This acceleration reflects a major shift in American strategic thinking. For Washington, the quantum threat is no longer a matter for the future — it’s already active in the present, and intelligence agencies now have a name for it: “Harvest Now, Decrypt Later.”

The day time became the attacker’s ally

For decades, cybersecurity has rested on a fairly simple assumption: a cryptographic system is considered secure as long as no machine has the power to break it. That’s exactly where quantum computing upends the logic.

The “Harvest Now, Decrypt Later” scenario rests on a disarmingly simple idea. An attacker doesn’t need to be able to decrypt information today for it to be useful tomorrow — they just need to steal it now.

Diplomatic communications, industrial data, military plans, research results, government archives, or medical information can be intercepted right now, stored for years, and then decrypted once quantum capabilities make that possible.

The attack thus becomes a long-term investment.

Having long focused on protecting data in transit or preventing intrusions, cybersecurity now faces a new variable introduced by quantum computing: the strategic shelf life of information. Data isn’t just sensitive today — it can remain sensitive for fifteen or twenty years.

An invisible but already active threat

This outlook fundamentally changes risk analysis. Public discussion of quantum computing tends to focus on one question: when will the first computer capable of breaking RSA or the elliptic-curve encryption systems that protect much of the internet today actually appear?

American agencies are now asking a different question: how much data is already being collected in anticipation of that moment? Today the answer is unknown, but storage capacity has never been more abundant. Cloud infrastructure allows gigantic volumes of data to be kept at falling costs. States have considerable resources to run large-scale collection operations.

In this context, technological uncertainty stops being reassuring — because even if a quantum computer capable of breaking today’s cryptographic systems is still ten years away, data stolen today can still be exploited later.

The danger, then, is no longer tied to when the machine arrives, but to the future value of the information being protected right now.

The most exposed sectors aren’t the ones you’d expect

Not all data carries the same level of risk. A one-off commercial transaction or a marketing campaign quickly loses its value. Certain categories of information, however, retain exceptional strategic importance over long periods.

Defense is the first obvious example: military infrastructure plans, operational capabilities, command systems, or sensitive research programs can remain relevant for decades.

The pharmaceutical sector faces a similar issue — clinical data, manufacturing processes, or research results represent years of investment and can retain considerable economic value long after they’re created.

Energy infrastructure is another critical case. Power grids, industrial control systems, and energy distribution architectures are designed to operate over horizons spanning several decades.

The financial sector is no exception either. Major banking institutions hold enormous volumes of regulatory, contractual, and transactional data, some of which will need to stay confidential well beyond 2035.

Even health data takes on a particular dimension in a post-quantum world, since unlike a password, genetic or biometric information can’t be changed once it’s compromised.

Why Washington is accelerating so sharply

The acceleration of the American timeline is probably the most revealing part of the White House’s announcements. The Biden administration had set 2035 as the target for migrating to quantum-resistant infrastructure. Trump is now pulling that deadline forward to 2031.

This shift doesn’t necessarily reflect an imminent technological breakthrough — it mainly reveals a change in how risk is being managed.

National security officials don’t know precisely when a quantum computer capable of breaking the world’s major cryptographic standards will appear. But they do know that research programs are advancing faster than they were five years ago. They also know that a state-wide cryptographic migration often takes a decade.

Waiting for technological certainty would therefore mean acting too late.

The reasoning is comparable to what led the United States to secure its semiconductor supply chains before a major crisis hit. The goal isn’t to respond to a proven threat, but to reduce a strategic vulnerability before it becomes critical.

Quantum joins AI in the hierarchy of sovereign technologies

This sequence of events also marks a political shift. For three years now, artificial intelligence has dominated the attention of governments, investors, and industry. Debates have centered on models, data centers, energy, and chips.

Quantum computing is now joining that select circle of technologies considered decisive for national power. The United States is investing simultaneously in semiconductors, AI, sovereign cloud, energy infrastructure, and quantum computing. These technologies are increasingly seen as different layers of the same strategic architecture.

The goal isn’t just to maintain scientific leadership, but to control the computing infrastructure that will determine economic competitiveness, military superiority, and national security over the coming decades.

This logic also explains the growing attention being paid to quantum sensors, also mentioned in the presidential orders. Long before universal quantum computers arrive, these technologies could transform navigation, detection, or military operations in environments where GPS is jammed or unavailable.

A new arms race built on data

The Cold War was built on the accumulation of missiles, nuclear submarines, and satellites. Twenty-first century technological competition increasingly rests on the accumulation of data, computing power, and algorithmic capability.

The “Harvest Now, Decrypt Later” scenario adds an extra dimension to that logic.

In this new context, a database becomes a strategic asset comparable to an energy reserve or a piece of critical infrastructure — one whose value lies not just in the information itself, but in the future ability to exploit it.

This shift is fundamentally transforming the concept of digital sovereignty. The question is no longer just where data is stored, but who will be able to read it in ten or fifteen years.

The real message Washington is sending

The Executive Orders signed by Trump aren’t merely additional support for an emerging industry. For the White House, quantum computing is becoming a matter of infrastructure, national security, and sovereignty.

For decades, cybersecurity meant protecting the present. The post-quantum era now forces organizations to protect the future as well.